A Must-Read Guide to Blackjack Odds and Probability

If you happen to be a mere beginner when it comes to casino games, chances are blackjack is one of the first games you go for. This is no surprise since blackjack is one of the simpler games to master, AND it offers the best odds out of all casino games.

Of course, just like with other card games, to truly master the game and boost your chances of winning, it’s smart to familiarize yourself with blackjack odds before putting down any real money. We’re here to help you with that as we go through all the odds and probabilities behind this popular card game.

Fret not; you won’t need advanced math skills to come to grips with the odds behind any of the blackjack variants.

Odds vs. Probability

Although odds and probability are terms often used interchangeably, there are important differences. In blackjack and betting in general, knowing this difference can help you increase your chance of winning.

Probability

Probability is used to tell us how probable it is to win a game. We calculate the probability by dividing the approximate chance of winning by all possible chances.

For example, if we have five cards and have to pick one, our probability is 1 (predicted chance of winning) divided by 5 (all chances), leaving us with 0.2 or 20%.

Odds

Odds are a representation of chance. They should be calculated by using a probability of winning and a probability of losing. In the case of five options with one choice, our odds are 4/1, where 4 is a chance of losing, while 1 is a chance of winning.

The odds in blackjack and betting generally aren’t normally calculated like this. They don’t strictly express the chance of winning but rather the payout for each bet.

Probability is normally used to show chance, while odds only serve to show the money you receive.

Types of Blackjack Odds and Probability

Blackjack is the most popular and simplest game you can find in a casino.

Las Vegas statistics show that blackjack brought revenue of 643 million in 2020 and was the most played game.

Blackjack has better odds and probability than most casino games. But be aware that there are many different types of Blackjack. Blackjack odds of winning greatly depend on the type of blackjack you’re playing. Let’s go through the most common variants.

Classic Blackjack

Classic Blackjack (sometimes called American Blackjack) is what you find in most casinos. It’s played with eight decks of 52 cards.

The average blackjack probability of winning is 42.22% for all types of blackjack. The probability of getting 21 in classic blackjack is 4.75%.

In the table below, you can find the probabilities of getting a certain number in blackjack.

House win/edge — guaranteed money a casino wins for a simple classic blackjack game is 0.61%. This means that from each $100 you wager, the casino gets $0.61.

The odds of winning at blackjack — classic variety is 3/2. The payout is the same, meaning you receive 1.5 times more than your stake. So, if you wager $100, you receive $150.

European Blackjack

Unlike classic blackjack, the European variant is played with two decks of cards, 52 cards in each.

Another difference is that the dealer doesn’t hit more after a soft 17 (one ace). But the dealer doesn’t look at their cards, so they might have a winning hand, and you might bet for nothing.

This all evens out, and the probability of a blackjack win in European blackjack is the same as in classic blackjack, around 42%.

European blackjack odds are the same as the classic variety — 3/2. What makes it more profitable is that it has a lower house edge, which is 0.39%.

Blackjack Switch

Blackjack Switch is a type of blackjack played with two hands. It follows the rules of classic blackjack but allows the player to switch between hands.

For example, if you have 11 and 3 in one hand and 9 and 10 in the other, you can switch 3 and 10 to get 21 in one hand and 12 in the other.

The probability of a blackjack switch win is the same as with the others — around 42%.

This is because there are rules specific to Switch. The dealer doesn’t lose when hitting 22, but all the bets push. Also, the same stake is placed on both hands.

House edge for Switch is slightly lower than with the classic — 0.58% and is one of the lowest in a casino.

Do keep in mind that blackjack switch odds are 1/1, which means it pays less than classic blackjack. For $100 wagered, you get $100.

Face up 21

Face up 21 blackjack is another popular type of blackjack. It’s interesting to play because all the cards are face up, meaning you can see the dealer’s cards at all times.

The chances of winning a blackjack game in Face Up are the same as in other games, +/- 42%.

Every tie-in Face-up blackjack is a loss for the player. If both you and the dealer have 20, you lose.

House edge is the highest of all previously mentioned — 0.85%. Face-up odds of winning blackjack and payout are 1/1.

Players usually choose Face-up 21 because it helps them develop a better strategy and is usually considered fun.

Because of the big house edge and low-paying odds, it’s not the best choice if you wish to earn money playing blackjack.

Free Bet

Free bet blackjack is a type of blackjack where you’re allowed to make certain additions to your game for free.

You can split — use one card for one hand and another for the second hand when they’re the same, or double — increase your bet mid-hand if you have a hard nine (9), hard ten (10), or a hard eleven (11) without getting charged additionally.

Blackjack house odds or edge for free bets come at around 1%, which is a lot more than 0.61% in classic blackjack.

Like with most others, free bet blackjack odds are 3/2.

Online Blackjack

The recent lockdown has helped online betting gain prominence, and online betting reached a revenue of $227 billion in 2020.

Blackjack is also very popular online, and more and more people prefer this type of playing. It has two main varieties:

Electronic Blackjack

Electronic blackjack or video blackjack is essentially a game-like version of blackjack you play with a computer. It’s similar to regular blackjack, but it’s played with just one deck.

House edge for video blackjack is a lot more than in live blackjack — 2.29%

Electronic blackjack odds are 1/1, and pay less than expected.

This variety of blackjack is also present in some casinos where it pays 3/2.

Live Dealer Blackjack

If you’re not interested in playing with a machine or are satisfied with video blackjack odds, you can play blackjack with a dealer live from your own home.

This type of online blackjack is better, as it normally follows the rules of classic blackjack.

It also has a lower house edge, which goes from 0.49% to 0.72%, depending on the online casino.

Online blackjack best odds are also in live dealer blackjack, with the payout of 3/2, as in regular blackjack.

Additional Bets/Options and Their Odds

Besides standard types of blackjack, there are side bets/additional options that can change the blackjack odds and money you receive. Most casinos offer some or all of these when playing blackjack, so it’s important to familiarize yourself with them.

Insurance

Insurance is offered in almost all types of blackjack and is the most used side bet.

It gives you the opportunity to protect ½  of your stake. If the dealer has an ace facing up and gets a blackjack, you still get paid.

This gives the player the chance to break even even if they lose the main bet.

Surrender

If you don’t feel that the real odds of winning a blackjack hand are high enough, most casinos offer you to surrender. There are two types of surrendering you can try.

Early surrender is less offered and used. With early surrender, you can surrender half your bet BEFORE the dealer looks for blackjack.

Late surrender is the possibility offered most. It means that you can surrender half your bet AFTER the dealer checks if they have a blackjack.

You should use the surrender option only when the probability of blackjack win seems unlikely. This is because you lose money after all and help raise the casino’s house edge.

Number of Decks

The Number of decks used for blackjack can be 1 to 8. Single deck blackjack odds are usually no different than eight-deck odds. They go from 1/1 to 100/1, and are side bet dependent.

The probability of winning stays the same, but the probability of getting a blackjack changes a bit.

On the other hand, the house edge drastically differs when using just one deck or eight. House edge can be almost 0.563% higher in the 8-deck than in 1-deck.

21+3

This type allows you to bet on the value of your first two cards and the dealer’s face-up card.

There are five values that you can bet on, and you can see them in the 21+3 Blackjack odds table below:

21+3 blackjack odds pay well, but the chances aren’t great, and the house edge is quite big.

The house edge for 21+3 starts from 6.29% and goes to 8.78% depending on the number of decks played with. Unlike normal blackjack, in 21+3 the lower the number of decks, the higher the house edge.

Perfect Pairs

Perfect pairs is a bet type similar to 21+3. The difference is that it focuses only on the player’s cards, and their combinations.

There are three types of pair combinations you can bet on:

Although the paying odds are quite good, these bets have one of the lowest blackjack probabilities. The house edge for perfect pairs bet is also high and goes from 2 to 11%.

Doubling

The doubling feature allows you to double your stake in the middle of one hand. By doubling, you have a chance of getting just one more card.

The paying odds on a blackjack win stay the same as with the classic blackjack, 3/2. The advantage is that you earn two times what you normally would because you place two stakes.

Splitting

If splitting is allowed, you can split your two first cards into two hands. You must place a stake for the other hand, as well.

Splitting is a value for your money if the dealer’s cards seem weak or if you follow a strategy. For example, splitting when you have two tens can hardly be a good choice since you’re close to winning.

Blackjack winning odds stay the same when you split — 3/2.

6 to 5 Odds

3 to 2 odds have been the norm in casinos for a long time. But, 6 to 5 are starting to become standard Vegas blackjack odds.

3 to 2 odds pay you 1.5 times your wager and are quite generous concerning the high probability of winning. 6 to 5 odds pay you less, 1.2 times your wager.

If the rules are the same, and with no bonus bet, you lose your money by playing 6 to 5 odds.

Although 6 to 5 are not the best blackjack odds in Vegas, they can be the only ones offered, and you have to play using them. But if you get nothing more from your bet, and you have two types of odds offered, always use 3 to 2.

Winning at Blackjack

There is no guarantee that you can win any game you play in the casino. But winning at blackjack has the best chance, and the blackjack odds can be called fair since the probability is high. With the biggest bet won at the blackjack table being $40 million, we can say that nothing is impossible when it comes to blackjack.

Here are some tips that can help you:

1. Don’t bet what you can’t lose.
2. When starting, don’t go into less safe bets.
3. Knowing something about basic strategy may help. The probability/real odds of winning blackjack with basic strategy are higher and you might feel safer if you follow certain rules.
4. Classic blackjack and European blackjack are beginner’s best friends.
5. Search for online offers to save yourself from paying the highest house edge. And if you feel more confident hearing about other people’s experience with blackjack odds, Reddit may be a place to start.
6. When you become familiar with blackjack, don’t be scared to try some side bets to win more money.

Conclusion

When everything’s taken into consideration, the fact that blackjack odds aren’t that hard to understand makes it one of the best casino games to start with. The probability of winning is high, and some reading about the types of blackjack and their additional bets/features can turn you into a skillful player.

If you have some luck to go along with this knowledge, you’re all set to start playing